If 100 people install your casual game but only 10 return the next day, would you keep increasing that channel’s budget?
Downloads may look promising; next-day behavior can tell a different story.
Ads keep running and installs keep rising, but few players return.
The revenue review reveals the problem: the budget was spent, but players did not stay.
Teams may respond by changing creatives, adjusting bids or searching for cheaper installs.
Before raising the budget, ask:
Where are players dropping out?
Every step—from the ad to download, first play and the next-day return—can affect results.
This article examines install cost, retention and revenue to help casual game teams decide when to keep investing.
1. Find out why players leave after installing
There may be several reasons players stop opening a game.
Sometimes the ad and game do not match. The creative promises easy levels, but the game starts with a long task sequence. Players may leave before reaching what they expected.
Onboarding may also take too long. Tutorials, loading or complex controls can block the fun of matching, progressing or completing tasks. Check how quickly first-time players reach core gameplay.
Aggregate data can hide another issue: the same game may perform differently across markets, channels and creatives. Average retention can look acceptable while one country loses many players.
When players do not return, check three areas:
- Experience match: does the advertised gameplay match the actual game?
- First-session flow: do players finish onboarding and start playing?
- Concentrated churn: which countries, channels or creatives bring players who leave?
Identify the drop-off before choosing an optimization.
2. Three metrics for player quality
1. CPI: what does an install cost?
CPI, or cost per install, is the advertising cost of acquiring one installation.
It helps compare acquisition costs across markets, channels and creatives, but cannot alone determine whether to increase spending.
Consider this hypothetical example:
Channel A costs $0.20 per install; 10 of every 100 players return on day one.
Channel B costs $0.35 per install; 25 of every 100 players return on day one.
A has cheaper installs. But the cost per day-one returning player is $2 for A and $1.40 for B.
A different perspective can change what “cheap” means.
This does not prove B is more profitable. It shows why retention and revenue matter beyond CPI.
2. D1 and D7 retention: do players return?
Retention measures whether players return at defined points after installation.
D1 retention measures the day after installation; D7 retention measures activity on the seventh day.
If installs are strong but D1 retention is low, review first-session gameplay, whether the ad’s promise is met and whether onboarding is too long.
If D1 is healthy but D7 falls sharply, inspect later levels, sudden difficulty increases and ads interrupting play.
Compare countries, channels and creatives separately using consistent definitions and periods to locate the affected cohorts.
3. D7 ROAS and monetization: do players generate revenue?
Returning players also need to be assessed for the revenue they generate.
ROAS, or return on ad spend, is generally attributed revenue divided by ad spend. D7 ROAS usually compares the cohort’s cumulative revenue in its first seven days with its acquisition cost.
It asks: how much ad spending was recovered in the first seven days?
The relevant metrics also depend on the monetization model.
For IAP, or in-app purchases, review payer conversion, spending and revenue recovery. For IAA, or in-app advertising, review engagement time, ad viewing and ad revenue.
Some casual game players never pay but return regularly and watch rewarded videos. They can still generate revenue.
D7 is an early window. Further investment should reflect the game’s actual payback cycle.
Read CPI, retention and revenue together to better understand channel value.
3. Should you increase the channel budget?
Use these three situations as an initial framework.
Cheap installs, weak retention and revenue
Do not rush to scale. Check whether creatives attract unsuitable players and whether churn clusters in a market or placement. Scaling weak installs can amplify the problem.
Higher install costs, stronger retention
Continue observing revenue recovery before deciding whether to optimize further. Retention is encouraging, but revenue must show whether acquisition costs are sustainable.
Cost, retention and recovery meet expectations
Increase spending gradually while monitoring changes at scale. Stability alone is insufficient: performance must meet this game’s goals.
For example, a creative may have low CPI while many players fail to finish onboarding.
Rather than immediately raising the budget, compare the advertised gameplay with actual drop-off points. Mismatched creatives may keep attracting the same churn.
Before scaling, confirm that strong performance can continue and known problems have been addressed.
4. Test new player sources with a limited budget
After reviewing current campaigns, teams entering a new market or expanding local acquisition can assess other touchpoints.
Google, Meta and TikTok remain important. OEM advertising can be tested as a complementary option.
OEM means original equipment manufacturer—here, smartphone manufacturers. Ads use device and system ecosystems, including store and system recommendations. Available placements vary by OEM and market.
Data must establish whether these players suit your game.
Choose one market and a limited budget, then compare placements. Track not only CPI but first play, returns and subsequent revenue.
Choose one market → separate placements → review the full data → scale after goals are met.
For example, store recommendations may have lower CPI while system recommendations bring better retention. Compare revenue before splitting the budget.
Cheap installs alone do not validate a new channel. The goal is to find players better suited to the game.
For international casual game acquisition, installation is only the first step.
Returns, continued play and revenue determine whether a channel deserves further spending.
At your next review, identify the largest drop-off. Understanding it can be more useful than seeking an even lower CPI.
Save this article or share it with your game acquisition team, then ask together: where exactly are players leaving?
About DTI
DTI provides international OEM advertising services through smartphone ecosystems including OPPO, vivo and XIAOMI. Local operations in China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia help advertisers reach overseas users through OEM channels.